The Fed Is Freezing the Housing Market – And It Doesn’t Have To
Expensive mortgage loans are pushing more Americans out of the housing market. According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales in April plunged by 6.3% — far worse than the expected 1% decline — marking the lowest index reading in nearly a year at 71.3. This steep drop coincides with mortgage rates nearing their 2025 highs. Pending Home Sales (MOM) The reason? High interest rates driven by the Federal …
Tesla Faces Mounting Challenges Amid Stock Decline and Market Pressures
Tesla, the electric vehicle company that captured lightning in a bottle to revolutionize the auto industry, has experienced a notable shift in its financial trajectory since reaching its all-time high in late 2024. The company's stock has recently declined approximately 40% from its peak, reflecting broader challenges within the tech and automotive sectors. (Reuters) Stock Performance – Volatility The gyrations of the Tesla stock price have always been great. This is because it tends to …
The Rising Tide of Debt: How Inflation and Living Expenses are Sinking American Finances
First Published: Great White Financial by Billy Lee Over the past four years, many Americans have found themselves increasingly burdened by debt. This troubling trend is largely attributed to the persistent rise in inflation and the resultant escalation in living expenses. As the cost of everyday necessities climbs, more individuals are resorting to lines of credit to make ends meet, leading to a deeper entrenchment in financial liabilities. The Inflation Surge Inflation, the rate at …
Eurodollar Curve Analysis on The Heels of Recent Fed Hike
The front end of the curve has predictably moved lower in response to the recent hike in the Fed Funds rate. The second quarterly in the Eurodollar futures complex is trading in a range with a lower support level at around 98.50. See the chart below. Coincidentally, we have seen the June 2020 quarterly contract move through its early March support level. Then, the contract retraced higher on a relative basis than the above September …
I Hate to Say it (not Really), But I Told You So; A Litany of “I Told You So” Since MMA Inception
In “The Universal Mind of Bill Evans,” an insightful documentary on the creative process of a legendary jazz pianist, Mr. Evans explains that his students are often faced with a problem that might have them choose to venture down several, various “avenues.” He is careful not to choose their path for them. He explains that his belief is that the musician would be deprived of the true educational experience if he were to do so. (In …
Glorious Patterns, Oratorios, and the Financial Market!
The price action in the S&P 500 futures contract looks strikingly similar to a line of music in the great George Handel's spectacular oratorio – Judas Maccabeus. A larghetto marks when a section of a musical piece should be performed at a slower tempo. If one has observed or traded the markets this summer, the juxtaposition of the score from this great oratorio and this chart should seem all the more apropos for this reason. As the …
Poem: “Hands”
Click on the headline to read "Hands" in poem format.
A New Event Within the Cycle of Lower Crude Oil Prices; and an Interesting Juxtaposition
The cycle of cheap energy, a strong dollar, and weak global demand (including a weak China), first described in "Crude Analysis of Crude: I Enter the Center of the Cycle", might give way to what could be a significant event. The price of the Crude Light Oil contract, traded on Globex, is nearing its 100 day moving average price for the first time since the end of July 2014. This technical lends to a better understanding …
Cycle of Weak Global Demand: Chinese Export Number Misses Big!
China Trade Balance (Mar), which came at CNY 18.8 bln vs exp CNY 250.0 bln, with exports -14.6% y/y (in yuan terms), while imports were -12.3% y/y (yuan terms), all components being a big miss, that has sent the rate at its day lows of 0.7610 from 0.7675/80 (AUD). It is interesting to see Chinese export numbers missing big. While Danske Bank's Flemming J. Nielsen writes that the big miss might be due to distortions …
Technicals Inform the Fundamental: QE4-ever?
It is amazing how technical analysis can inform us of the fundamentals! Recently, a look at the 30 year futures proved very interesting. Take a look back at the entry, BIG PICTURE ANALYSIS OF 30 YEAR FUTURES: UP WHERE THE AIR IS THIN, and see the several interesting questions that the chart begged to be asked. At that time, we saw the 30 year futures contract trading between the 138 and 141 handle. The last time the contract …