Treasury Rates This Past Week: 2s, 5s, and 10s Moved Lower, Then Rebounded Into Friday U.S. Treasury yields spent most of the week drifting lower before firming modestly into Friday. From Monday, April 6, to Friday, April 10, the 2-year yield moved from 3.84% to 3.81%, the 5-year from 3.98% to 3.94%, and the 10-year from 4.34% to 4.31%. Midweek, yields fell more noticeably as the market reacted to a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire and a sharp drop in oil prices, which eased some of the immediate inflation fear that had been building around energy markets. By Thursday, the 2-year had…

2-Year, 5-Year, and 10-Year Treasury Yields Moved Lower on the Week, but the Path Was Volatile U.S. Treasury yields finished the week of March 27 to April 3 lower than where they started, but the move was anything but calm. Using the Treasury/Fed constant-maturity series, the 2-year yield moved from 3.88% on March 27 to 3.84% on April 3, the 5-year moved from 4.06% to 3.99%, and the 10-year moved from 4.44% to 4.35%. That left the curve a bit flatter by week’s end, with the 10-year minus 2-year spread narrowing from about 56 basis points to about 51 basis…

March Madness 2026: A Quantitative Look at Upset Probabilities Every March, the same question floods the market: Which game is going to be the upset game? Let's take a look at the math! Upsets in the NCAA Tournament are not anomalies. They are structural features of the system. In 2026, the underlying data suggests we could be setting up for above-average bracket disruption. Let’s break it down like a portfolio manager evaluating tail risk. Let's Look at the Baseline: Historical Upset Probabilities Using historical tournament data since 1985 (when the field expanded to 64 teams), I used AI to calculate…